With Three Already Down, Eight More House Incumbents Face Primary Worries

By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff Fri Jun 27, 1:03 PM ET

Republican Rep. Chris Cannon's loss to challenger Jason Chaffetz in Utah's 3rd District Tuesday marked the third defeat of a U.S. House incumbent in this year's congressional primaries. With Cannon joining the two Maryland representatives, Republican Wayne T. Gilchrest and Democrat Albert R. Wynn, who lost their seats in their state's Feb. 12 party voting, the number of primary-defeated House members already exceeds the total for all of 2006.

With the primary season extending all the way into the early fall, will more members fall to intraparty dissent?

Recent election history suggests there will not be many more incumbents ousted by their own party base. Only two, Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz of Michigan and Democratic Rep. Cynthia A. McKinney of Georgia, were denied renomination by primary voters in 2006, coincidentally on the same day of Aug. 8. Only once in the previous six election cycles were more than three House members denied renomination. A list of incumbent defeats in primary elections dating to 1968, can be found on CQ Politics' "Greg's List" feature.

Yet it is still quite early in the 2008 primary season, with roughly half the states still left to go. The next primary elections aren't until July 15, when Georgia will vote and Alabama will hold Republican runoffs in two congressional districts. And CQ Politics has identified eight incumbents facing primary challenges in the remaining states that are to some degree threatening -- two of which are in Georgia.

These eight competitive primary elections are profiled below, listed in chronological order by the date of the primary election. Some are more competitive than others. Five of the eight contests profiled will be held in August, during a three-week span in which candidates' get-out-the-vote efforts will be complicated by the distractions of the Summer Olympics in Beijing and the beginning of the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

Some of the contests share certain characteristics. Two of them -- in Georgia and Tennessee -- include white Democratic members of Congress who face African-American challengers in districts with sizable black populations. In three contests, one in Colorado and two in Tennessee, freshman members of Congress will be tested after winning 2006 primary contests with small pluralities of the vote in crowded candidate fields.

Six of the districts involved have one other very important thing in common: their voters so favor the incumbent party that the winner of its primary appears certain to coast to election in November. Only the contests in Georgia's 12th District and for Alaska's at-large seat are likely to segue into competitive general election contests.

July 15 - Georgia's 10th District Republican primary: Republican Paul Broun won his seat in northeastern Georgia with a stunning upset in a July 2007 special election runoff. He defeated a much better-known Republican candidate, former state Sen. Jim Whitehead, who had the support of the state party establishment -- including the family of the late 10th District Republican Rep. Charlie Norwood, whose death in February of that year created the vacancy filled by Broun.

Broun barely had time to settle into Congress before drawing a challenge for this July's primary from Republican state Rep. Barry Fleming, who quickly rallied support from colleagues in the state legislature and local party officials.

Broun's Republican detractors contend that he won the Republican-vs.-Republican runoff with support of Democratic voters who had no candidate of their own, and that he is not a genuine conservative. Broun, who has amassed a nearly solid party-line voting record during his short time in Congress, denies these assertions.

Democratic strategists hope that the competitive GOP primary will weaken the nominee and give at least a longshot chance to their chosen candidate, Iraq War veteran Bobby Saxon, in a district that usually gives Republicans a big edge.

- Georgia's 12th District Democratic primary: Racial demographics are a factor in this sprawling east Georgia district, which includes areas in and around Augusta and Savannah. Two-term Democratic Rep. John Barrow, who is white, faces a primary challenge from state Sen. Regina Thomas, who is African-American and is seeking to galvanize support from black residents who make up 45 percent of the district's population.

Thomas is raising issues about Barrow's legislative voting record that marks him as among the most conservative Democrats in the House. Yet it is Barrow who has the endorsement of presumed Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, who won the Feb. 5 Georgia primary easily with overwhelming support from his fellow African-Americans.

Barrow also has backing from much of the state Democratic Party establishment, which views him as more electable. The 12th District, even with its large black constituency, shows conservative leanings, and Barrow won his 2006 contest by a narrower margin -- 864 votes -- than any other Democratic incumbent.

Challenger Thomas may be further hindered on the money front. She formed a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission just last month.

Republicans intend to target Barrow again this November, with John Stone, a former congressional aide, and Ben Crystal, a former radio personality in Savannah, among the candidates running in that party's July 15 primary. CQ Politics currently rates the general election race as Leans Democratic.

August 5 - Michigan's 13th District Democratic primary: A lot of Detroit voters are outraged at Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, whose controversies include an investigation into whether he lied to law enforcement authorities about an extramarital affair. With the mayor rejecting many calls that he resign from office, his mother -- six-term Democratic Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick -- will have to work to avoid collateral damage in the face of a serious primary challenge in Michigan's 13th District.

The congresswoman faces two primary competitors -- state Sen. Martha Scott and former state Rep. Mary Waters -- in the 13th, which includes slightly more than half of Detroit's residents. Waters in particular is seeking to hold the House incumbent accountable for the mayor's behavior, arguing that Kilpatrick's unflagging defense of her son indicates bad priorities. "Sorry, congresswoman, but we deserve much better than 'ya'll boy,'" the Waters campaign said in an Internet ad, echoing a quote from Kilpatrick about her son.

The primary is effectively the only contest in the black-majority 13th, which gave 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry 80 percent of its votes.

August 7

- Tennessee's 1st District Republican primary: Tennessee is the only state that is holding its primary on a Thursday -- and is one of just two remaining primary states (Georgia being the other) in which two incumbents are trying to fend off serious primary challenges.

One of these is in the eastern 1st District, where voters have elected Republicans to Congress since 1880. So Republican David Davis had reason to expect job security when he won the 2006 race with 61 percent of the general election vote to succeed retiring Rep. Bill Jenkins.

But to get to that general election, Davis had to outrun 12 other Republicans in the August 2006 primary, which he did with a just 22 percent of the vote and a 573-vote margin over his closest competitor. That has prompted Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe, who ran fourth and 5 points behind Davis in that primary two years ago, to take a second stab at the seat. Roe, who argues that Davis is beholden to special interests, hopes to ride a wave of what he believes is an anti-incumbent movement, according to local news reports.

Davis, however, has the financial and organizational advantage of incumbency this time around.

- Tennessee's 9th District Democratic primary: Freshman Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen also won his seat by finishing atop a jam-packed primary field, taking 31 percent to defeat 14 other Democratic candidates in the overwhelmingly Democratic, Memphis-based 9th District.

But Cohen faces a greater degree of difficulty than Republican Davis across the state, in the form of his district's demographics. Cohen, who is white, represents a district where about three-fifths of the residents are black. The district had been represented by black Democrats, the father-son combo of Harold E. Ford (1975-97) and Harold Ford Jr. (1997-2007), for the previous 32 years. Some black activists argued Cohen, the only major white candidate in the 2006 primary, won only because the black vote was fractured among multiple candidates.

That proposition will be tested in this year's primary in which Cohen has drawn four African-American opponents -- including airline executive Nikki Tinker, his closest competitor in 2006, when she took 25 percent of the Democratic vote. Some members of the Congressional Black Caucus have already donated to Tinker's campaign. But Cohen has the advantage of incumbency and strong support from prominent members of the local black community, as well as some leading black colleagues in Washington, such as Ways and Means Chairman Charles B. Rangel of New York.

August 12 - Colorado's 5th District Republican primary: Freshman Rep. Doug Lamborn won a six-candidate primary in 2006 with just 27 percent of the vote, and that contest was so bitterly fought that it is hardly surprising that this year's contest is a virtual replay.

One of Lamborn's primary foes is former congressional aide Jeff Crank, the 2006 runner-up with 25 percent. Crank had sought last time to succeed his former boss, retiring Republican Rep. Joel Hefley, who was so offended by Lamborn's campaign tactics that he refused to endorse him for the general election. Lamborn nonetheless won the seat in the heavily Republican district by a margin that was comfortable, if somewhat smaller than usual for a GOP candidate.

Also taking another primary shot at Lamborn is Bentley Rayburn, a retired Air Force major general, who finished third with 17 percent in 2006.

There won't be any tacking to the political center in this Colorado Springs-centered district, which gave two-thirds of its votes to President Bush in 2004. Lamborn had the highest "party unity" score, as defined by Congressional Quarterly, among House Republicans in 2007. So this race may hinge more on differences in style and background than ideology.

August 26 - Alaska's At-Large District Republican primary: Republican Rep. Don Young has served in Congress since 1973, coasting through most of his reelection campaigns in his Republican-leaning state. But he is facing the fight of his career this year, stemming from his connections to business interests and campaign contributors who are at the center of a federal investigation into state political bribery.

Democrats, who typically have all but ceded the state's only House seat to Young's political clout, this year are gearing up for a serious takeover bid, with their nomination sought by state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz and author Diane Benson, who as the party's 2006 nominee held Young to an unusually low 57 percent of the vote. CQ Politics currently rates the general election contest as No Clear Favorite.

But to even get to the fall campaign, Young must survive serious risk in the Aug. 26 Republican primary. Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is making a strong push for the seat and has received backing from popular Republican Gov. Sarah Palin. Parnell argues that Young, whose rough-hewn manner has stirred a number of controversies over the years, needs to be voted out of office in favor of new leadership. Republican state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux is also competing in the primary.

September 6

- Louisiana's 2nd District Democratic primary: Young's problems, deep as they are, pale by comparison to those afflicting nine-term Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson, who represents the bulk of New Orleans. Jefferson is seeking re-election even though he faces 16 federal bribery and corruption charges related to his business dealings with companies seeking contracts in Africa. His trial is tentatively scheduled to begin on Dec. 2.

Those legal troubles might have felled other members of Congress. But Jefferson proved resilient by winning re-election in 2006, before he was indicted, but when it was well-known that federal investigators were looking into his finances -- including highly publicized allegations that the congressman stashed bribe money in his freezer.

Skillfully portraying himself in the black-majority district as a victim of selective prosecution, Jefferson defeated Democratic state Rep. Karen Carter by 13 percentage points in a runoff election in December 2006.

Competition is sure to emerge during the candidate qualifying period of July 9 to 11 that is fast approaching. State Rep. Cedric Richmond and Byron Lee, a councilman in Jefferson Parish, have formed campaign committees.

The contest will be run under a new election system adopted by the state. Louisiana long stood out by holding single-ballot, all-party primaries in which a candidate could win office outright with a majority of the vote; runoffs, if necessary, were between the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, which means two members of the same party could face off in what amounted to a general election (as occurred in Louisiana 2 in 2006). Under the new system, which conforms to that used in states across the country, the parties will hold separate primaries, with the nominees facing off in the November general election.

That means that the Democratic primary winner, whether Jefferson or an opponent, will be virtually certain to win the seat in a district that gave 75 percent of its 2004 presidential votes to Kerry.

CQ Politics reporters Rachel Kapochunas and Marie Horrigan contributed to this article.

Clarification: Story updated to include two Democrats who have formed campaign committees to run against Rep. Jefferson in Louisiana's 2nd District.